Key Takeaways for Decision Makers
BUYER/SELLER: In 2015 it was rare to see an International ProStar sold at auction, but plenty were seen available on dealer lots.
In the most recent Top Four EquipmentWatch Models reflecting December trends, the International ProStar was highlighted for commercial trucks. There were significantly large increases showing within the article for the International ProStar so we decided to look further into what was happening. Analyzing over 70,000 sales records from both the auction and private resale markets that power EquipmentWatch Values for the ProStar, shifts in both pricing and volume was clear. There were price decreases for the year of 2015 and large volume increases YoY. Using January of 2013 as the benchmark, the downward trend for pricing becomes quite evident throughout the three years of this model being on the resale market. There was a 16.5% increase in pricing in May over the January price before the drop in June where prices continue to decline with a few spikes during 2014. Since January of 2013, prices on these trucks have dropped 35.7%.
On the other end of the spectrum, it is quite evident from the graph that the volume went in the opposite direction over the three years. There were a number of spikes and dips at the beginning of 2015 as it has been a bit more volatile market compared to 2013 and 2014 for this model truck. The difference between the largest volume month and the smallest during 2015 was more than double the difference in each of the other two years. In 2015, the monthly volume had a total range of 3819 between the highest and lowest, while in 2013 it was only a difference of 1686. To coincide with some of these volume changes, these trucks on the auction market were almost non-existent in 2015. There were almost identical number of ProStars sold at auction in 2014 as there were in 2013. The fact that it was rare to see an International ProStar on the auction market in 2015 is an impactful reason that the number of them on the private resale market nearly doubled in 2015 as a whole compared to 2014. The two markets tend to move in opposite directions. If a truck is selling well on the private market at a higher price, sellers will take advantage and are less likely to sell it at auction where trucks typically sell at a lower price.
Between December 2014 and December 2015 the average age of these International trucks only increased by 0.8 years in the resale market. The average age of these trucks in 2013 on the private market was 3.0 years increasing to 4.1 years by the end of 2015. At auction, the trucks had an average age of 4.6 years dropping down to 3.5 in 2015. The most popular model year during 2014 was the 2010 holding 34.9% of the market during the year. This shifted during 2015 as the 2012’s became the most common to see on the market at 33.7%. Given that the most popular model back in 2013 was the 2009 at 28.5%, the shift in age for selling the International ProStars on the resale market becomes evident. Even though the 2011 models gained a large amount of market volume in 2015, the 2012’s increased at a much higher rate. This momentum started in April as the months prior the 2011’s were more common to see on the resale market